Democrats’ Chances Of Taking Over The House Just Got Better, Per New Forecast

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The outlook is rosy despite Donald Trump’s rise in the polls.

Democrats’ shot at taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives just got slightly better, according to a new analysis of polling data conducted by The Cook Political Report.

Cook announced Friday that it had changed its ratings in 13 congressional districts. In all of the new ratings, Democrats are more likely to either flip a Republican seat or hold onto one controlled by Democrats.

None of the changed ratings show Democrats taking a seat that Cook previously predicted would remain in Republican hands. Instead, they are changes regarding the likelihood that Republicans or Democrats will hold a seat.

For example, the polling numbers cruncher changed its rating for Washington’s 5th Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to the more tenuous “Lean Republican.”

It’s notable that Republicans’ hold on that district, which consists of a rural swath of Eastern Washington state, has slipped even modestly. Republicans undoubtedly do not want to have to spend money defending a seat represented by Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the fourth-highest-ranking Republican in the House.

What’s more, Washington’s 5th is usually reliably Republican. President Donald Trump won in the district by 13 percentage points.

Cook’s ratings changes are especially remarkable because they coincide with a modest increase in Trump’s approval rating. The percentage of Americans who approve of Trump’s performance ticked up from 38 percent at the beginning of January to 40 percent in April, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

And while Democrats maintain a lead of more than 8 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, it has fallen considerably since late December, when polling showed their edge reaching well into double digits.

The trouble for Republicans is that those are still significant advantages for Democrats. A 40 percent approval rating is quite low for a sitting president less than a year and a half into his tenure.

Add to the mix a historic number of Republican retirements ― 36 so far, according to Cook ― and much higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters, and it is easier to see why Cook continues to view Democrats as “slight favorites for House control.”

Democrats need to flip 23 GOP-held seats to win back the majority. Accounting for the small number of Democrat-held seats where Republicans are competitive, the party must win 27 out of 55 contentious races, according to Cook.



Trump tosses the 'boring' Republican script to rally his base

Speaking at a tax reform roundtable in West Virginia, President Trump literally threw away his prepared remarks to launch into an attack on “weak” immigration laws and “incompetently drawn” trade deals that allow Americans to be “taken advantage of.”

“It would have taken about two minutes, but what the hell,” Trump said after tossing a piece of paper as the crowd laughed. “That would have been a little boring. Little boring. No, I'm reading off the first paragraph and I said, ‘This is boring. Come on.’”

Flanked by two Republican Senate candidates, Trump is busy campaigning to preserve and even expand the GOP majorities on Capitol Hill. “We have to get Republicans in office,” he said. But he has increasingly been discarding the traditional Republican script to emphasize his own populist themes.

Trump was in West Virginia, a state he carried by more than 40 points and where Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., is up for re-election this fall, to tout the Republican-passed tax cut he signed into law late last year.

“You know, they used to call it tax reform, and for 40 years they couldn't pass anything and they didn't know why,” he said, adding he suggested his Republican colleagues call the bill “tax cuts” instead.

But Trump spent at least as much time railing against “chain migration,” sanctuary cities, the diversity visa lottery, and “catch and release” as he revisited the immigration rhetoric he used when he launched his presidential campaign in 2015.

“Everybody said, ‘Oh, he was so tough,' and I used the word ‘rape,’” Trump said. “ And yesterday, it came out where, this journey coming up, women are raped at levels that nobody has ever seen before. They don't want to mention that.”

Since it was reported that a “caravan” of undocumented immigrants from Central America was approaching the U.S., Trump has excoriated the Democrats’ approach to immigration, distanced himself from a deal on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, and signed a proclamation dispatching the National Guard to the border.

“We have no idea who they are, what they do, where they came from. We have no idea what their records are,” Trump said. “We don’t know if they're murderers, if they're killers, if they're MS-13. We're throwing them out by the hundreds.”

The president added MS-13 was no match for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. “And these ICE guys are so much tougher than them, and they're grabbing them by the necks and throwing them into the paddy wagons,” Trump said. “And the town — the people are clapping and screaming. Their town has been liberated. It's like it's a war. It's like, literally, it's a war, where your town or your city or your country has been liberated.”

“I simply think he is taking advantage of the opportunity afforded him by organizers of the caravan,” said former Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., once the leading immigration hawk in Congress. “Probably one of the dumbest PR stunts I have ever heard of but definitely provides us with an opportunity to drive home the message regarding secure borders.”

Later Thursday Trump announced he had “instructed the [U.S. trade representative] to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs.”

These tariff hikes drew an immediate rebuke from Republican free traders. “China is guilty of many things, but the President has no actual plan to win right now,” Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., said in a statement. “He’s threatening to light American agriculture on fire. Let’s absolutely take on Chinese bad behavior, but with a plan that punishes them instead of us. This is the dumbest possible way to do this.”

In picking these fights, Trump is rallying his base, some of whom had become disillusioned with his more conventionally Republican first year in office and the compromise he floated on DACA.

“We are calling on Trump to pick up his phone and order the Border Patrol to end his catch and release policies he's continuing from the Bush and Obama administrations and then call the Pentagon to order an immediate deployment of U.S. forces to stop that caravan and other illegals as Article 4 of the U.S. Constitution requires,” said William Gheen of Americans for Legal Immigration PAC.

Some Republicans nevertheless worry that Trump’s trade policies will wipe out the economic gains from tax cuts and deregulation while his rhetoric will alienate voters in the suburban districts the party needs to hold to retain its House majority.

“This won’t help the candidates I work for,” said a GOP strategist speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump remains undeterred. “We have some people that really, they love this country more than anything and they see now it's on the right track,” he told the adoring West Virginia crowd. "And it's going to get better and better.”


Your New Most-Watched Cable News Host Is ... Rachel Maddow

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Sean Hannity has been dethroned.

March Maddow-ness.

MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow dethroned Fox News’ Sean Hannity last month to seize the title of most-watched cable news host.

According to figures from Forbes, The Rachel Maddow Show turned in its best-ever performance with an average of 3.058 million viewers, compared to Hannity’s 3 million.

She also beat him among those aged 25-to-54 ― the demographic advertisers most covet ― with an average viewership from that group of 671,000 compared with 616,000 for Hannity.

Those are admittedly tight margins, but given Hannity’s long streak atop the charts ― just a month earlier Forbes hailed him as “the unrivaled King of Cable News” ― it’s a significant victory for Maddow nonetheless.

Nielsen ratings provided to HuffPost vary slightly from the Forbes figures, but report the same results ― Maddow’s March viewership edged out Hannity overall and among the key demographic.  

According to Adweek’s TV Newser, Maddow’s viewership numbers have been strong throughout the year’s first quarter. For the period from Jan. 1 through March 31, she pulled a larger average audience than Hannity among the 25-to 54 year-olds.

Hannity, though, had the larger overall viewership during the quarter (the Fox News audience traditionally skews older).

CNN’s top-ranked host, Anderson Cooper, ranked a distant 10th among the 25-to-54 age group, and lower still for overall viewership, according to the Adweek quarterly figures.

MSNBC has enjoyed a ratings surge of late thanks to its position as a progressive foil to President Donald Trump. Its top three primetime hosts ― Maddow, Chris Hayes, and Lawrence O’Donnell ― have collectively branded themselves “The Resistance.” 

Overall, however, Fox News remains the nation’s go-to cable news network. Fox hosts owned six of the top 10 most-watched cable news programs in 2018′s first quarter, per Adweek. And the network has owned the title of most-watched for all its programs for 65 consecutive quarters since 2002.




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